Last Night Sucked

March 12, 2010

My betting account has a nil balance as you probably know if you’ve been keeping up.  That in itself is bad enough but to add insult to injury this damn flu virus thing I’m suffering with is getting progressively worse.  I even opted to sleep in the spare bed last night as I just couldn’t stop coughing or sneezing, both of which caused my chest to feel like it was being raked over on the inside by a wire brush.  I was in and out of sleep pretty much all night as breathing was difficult lying down so I propped myself up with a bunch of pillows in the end.  I finally got comfortable at around 6am only for my peace to last about an hour as the dogs came marching in and mobbed me.

As far as funding my account goes I might leave it til Monday to give this shitty flu a chance to work it’s way out of me but then again I might get back into it tomorrow, depends how I feel.  Today is going to be spent lying on the bed watching CNN, CSI re-runs, and whatever else takes my fancy.  Whatever you get up to yourselves I hope you have better luck than me on the punt.  Back tomorrow.


Mental Note To Self

March 11, 2010

“I must pay myself more often”

It really does make sense to record your betting history and I know you can generate a P&L from Betfair and the like but if you take the time to develop your own personal P&L you’ll develop a more intimate relationship with your past wagers which in the long run will provide you with invaluable data to help you become better at what you do.

After the day was done yesterday I took a look through my spreadsheet, going all the way back to January ’09, to see what kind of mistakes I’d made and whether or not I was still carrying bad habits from the past.  Apart from the obvious stupidity like a whole bankjob (several times) on some outcome or other (some which paid off and some which did not) I found that I have been treating my betting as if it were just ‘something to do’.  I can pick any day and look at the period of a week or so before to a week or so after and the balance would seesaw up and down but on the whole it remained static.  By that I mean I wouldn’t be much better off on say day 10 than I was on day 1, the result being I’m doing a ton of work trading and placing bets yet yielding no significant monetary gain.

I then looked at the periods following a withdrawal and more often than not my account swelled quite rapidly up to a certain point then this seesawing begins again.  So it seems that my most productive periods are those following a withdrawal so I’m concluding that I should be taking money out of my account much more frequently than I have been doing and that starts today.  The only down side to this is that I won’t be seeing a four figure balance anytime soon which is a pisser in itself as I’ll be back in that catch 22 position of having to work my balls off every day instead of being able to take it easy and patiently wait for a game that looks likely to produce a result for me.  The catch 22 is I can’t afford to just sit tight and wait for that game because if it doesn’t produce the goods it’s time wasted when I could have been cashing in on games in between.  I hope you follow me there.

Another thing I noticed is that I have managed to curtail the random bets on the Yank racing.  For a period I was visiting that medium almost every day and while some days it paid off, in the main they resulted in losses for me so I’m glad I managed to rid myself of that habit.  That said I do keep a watch eye on the Betfair Aussie horse racing forum via my girlfriend’s account (I’m banned from the forums). 

The Aussie forum has of late been plagued with a lot of in fighting amongst some of the more prominent posters and on top of that there has been a ton of trolling by one clown who seems hell bent on fucking the place up and he’s doing a fair job of it but all that apart there are some very knowledgeable posters in there and every now and then there will be some golden piece of info posted that will result in a fatter account balance.

So I swept some money out yesterday evening and I begin anew today with a little over £200 in my account.  I have a couple of hours to kill before the in play matches begin so I’ll be spending some of that time doing a bit of research though as far as feeling up to it goes I just feel like staying in bed.  The sore throat I started with on Sunday has morphed into the Ebola Virus, at least it feels like it, and I feel like shite but you can’t get paid if you don’t do the work.  Back later with an update.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  OK, my starting point for the day is a dutch of 2-0, 2-1, and 2-2 in the Rubin Kazan v Wolfsburg game though now I’m wishing I’d found the feed before I placed the bet…what is it with these orange balls ffs ?  They say they use those balls because of snow but there’s no effing snow and following an orange ball is a pain in the arsehole.  Rant over, I’m off to see how things progress.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Well the Rubin feed didn’t last long so I was forced to watch the Betfair screen.  Judging by the number of times the Suspended banner appeared it must have been quite a match, either that or the suspend monkey was playing silly buggers.  The score didn’t work out for me so that was a loss even though I managed to get in a lay of the 0-0 half time score before the first goal was scored.

I progressed onto the Juventus match and actually made up my losses from the Rubin game plus a bit more, and all before half time.  I decided to jump all over unquoted but Juve had other ideas as they didn’t bother to play in the second half.  Fulham were never going to score a second as Zamora saw to it that every ball Fulham punted forward would be wasted by his being in an offside position.  So in that game alone I managed to turn a £60 profit into a £60 loss.

So I’m now in the unfortunate spot where there’s only Copa shit left and I’m currently sitting waiting for either 0-2 or 1-2 in the Nacional v Sao Paulo game.  Regardless of how this game finishes I’ll be going in on both of the games being played at altitude (Emelec & Deportivo Quito).  Not sure what I’m going to do in those games but I’m hoping that the home sides will take advantage of their home venues in the clouds and give us a goalfest.  Back later with a final update.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  The Brazilians obliged with a 2-0 win over Nacional though I have to say it was pretty hard to watch as they seemed not to really give a fuck after the first goal went in.  They swanned around the pitch almost like it’s their right to end up winning and when you have money on them to conjure up a particular result it’s bloody frustrating at times.  Anyway, no more crying, they won and that’s that.

It seems I didn’t do my homework properly for the Emelec match in that they don’t enjoy the same kind of altitude advantage as the likes of Deportivo Quito.  Of course I found this out after I placed my correct score bets of 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1.  Best they don’t let me down.  I’m still toying with laying the 0-0 half time but I’ll watch a bit more of the match I think before I decide.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Oh dear ! Every bet I placed on the Emelec match was a loser and my account is all but decimated.  I have £38 and change left following this disastrous result so I figure that I really don’t have much to lose now.  Final bet of the day is £30 on Deportivo Quito to beat Internacional at 2.8.  If this fails I have some serious thinking to do.  Back after the result is known.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  So far so good in the Quito match – the home team scored first so I was able to lay them for a green book then when Internacional equalised I used the green I had on Internacional and the draw to back Quito again as I think Quito will emerge as the winners as the second half takes it’s toll on the Brazilians.  I also bunged £30 on over 2.5 goals just to put a bit more in the bank (assuming all goes to plan and Quito go on to win the match).  Second half is about to start so I’m off to watch.  I promise the next update will be the last (as if you care ;-)).

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I’m a fucking idiot.  Another lesson learned the hard way.  I greened up after the first goal and that should have been that but I just couldn’t walk away and my balance is now zero.  The second half brought no more goals (plenty of fucking disastrous efforts from set pieces but then again the balls are filled with helium so it’s to be expected that they end up in row Z).  Don’t know what to do from here.  I have to reload at some point but funds aren’t exactly plentiful right now so I’m not sure what’ll happen.  Spreadsheet below.

Start Bank      :    205.87
End Bank        :    0.15
Profit / Loss    : – 205.72 (After Commission)

Decisions Decisions

March 10, 2010

Which match to get involved in, Man Utd or Real Madrid ?  I settled in the end for the Utd match only because I wanted to watch it (though I have the Real Madrid match on as well).  Real are a goal up after 6 minutes and that match could well go unquoted as all reports are Madrid are totally fired up for it.

I’ve layed the 0-0 half time score at Old Trafford (surprise surprise) but I’m hoping the goal (if it comes) will be scored in Milan’s goal rather than United’s.  There’s already been a couple of early scares for United………STOP PRESS….Rooney scores  


OK, have to go, will be back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  So the two big matches of the day get their half time breaks with both home teams leading by a goal to nil.  I haven’t been watching the Real Madrid match too closely, just nipping into the other room now and then to get an update.  It appears that Madrid should have had the tie dead and buried and I saw a great chance go begging when Higuain’s shot was parried by the ‘keeper leaving Ronaldo fuming as he was in a better position to score had Higuain layed it off for him.

I’ve had a couple of small bets in the correct score market in the United match, 3-0 and 3-1, but I won’t be too disappointed if they don’t come off.  I’m making this my last match of the day whatever happens as there’s only pish matches left and having been screwed yesterday by betting on pish I’d like to leave it a few days before I repeat the same mistake.  Back in an hour.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Well the Reds go marching on with an emphatic 4-0 win over AC Milan but you have to feel sorry for Madrid who, after missing chance after chance in the first half, got booted out out of the competition after Pjanic equalised for Lyon 15 minutes from time.  This meant Real had to score 2 goals without reply to go through but it wasn’t to be and their Champions League dreams are over for another season.

As far as my betting on the day goes it was a better day than yesterday (couldn’t really be worse) with a more than 50% increase thanks mainly to the efforts of Al Sadd and Al Hilal who both won their respective matches in the Asian Champions League.  I have to hand it to these Middle Eastern teams, they really do like their football and while they aren’t necessarily the best finishers in the world their enthusiasm to get forward and attack makes up for it as so many chances get created it’s only a matter of time before the ball finds the net.  Top tip – if you want to make money make sure you get involved in these matches as so far there’s been goals aplenty particularly when teams from Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE have been playing.

No more involvement for me today as I’ve swept out some money from my betting account so I’m back down to a piddling amount to play with so I’d rather have a fresh day to start building it up again.  Back tomorrow, spreadsheet below.

Start Bank      :    232.76
End Bank        :    355.87
Profit / Loss    : + 123.11 (After Commission)

I Hear Voices…

March 9, 2010

… telling me “Get a grip you buffoon.”.  I’m half dead with a throat infection, my head hurts, and I should be laying around in bed doing nothing but I’m not.  Instead I’m sitting here trying to make amends for yesterday’s losses and moreover I started the day without any kind of plan whatsoever.

I got another email containing a list of lays for the day (horses) if the prices were available on Betfair.  I missed the first three or four but the fifth one on the list hadn’t yet run so I went with that.  It was 1/2 on when it went off but that’s OK, many a 1/2 shot has been beaten in the past and this one only just managed to keep it’s head in front to thwart me.  Instead of now sticking to a laying plan based around the rest of the list I wandered aimlessly to a 3m 6f handicap chase at Exeter and backed the favourite because people who know more than me about it thought it’s chances were very good.  My intention was always to lay off somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0 but the horse has to actually finish the race and finish well to ever have a chance of that coming off.  The nag was pulled up before the 4th last.

That was enough of that so finally I turned my attentions to what I think suits me best and that’s the football.  I started off with the Al Gharafa v Al Ahli match and I have to say that these guys get 10/10 for both commitment and enthusiasm.  The first half was end to end stuff finishing with a goal apiece and the second half produced three more goals to see the home side nick it 3-2 with two goals only minutes apart.  If these guys could finish as well as they could actually set up scoring chances it could have been a rugby score.

I’ve moved on to the Al Ittihad v Zob Ahan match hoping for more of the same.  While my initial lay of 0-0 at half time is in I’m not sure whether or not to pursue this match any further as I can’t find a feed to watch it.  Anyway, I’m a whopping £5.65 up on the day so far so it’s onwards and upwards.  More later when the proper footy gets going (hoping for a goalfest in the Arsenal Porto game).

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> I’m at the point of giving this shit up…at least I’ll retain my sanity.  The Arsenal Porto match was great though not many would have expected a 5-0 scoreline.  I took a few quid from that game and moved on to the Copa match between Bolivar and Estudiantes.  I wish I hadn’t.

It’s about to finish 0-0 and my account will be decimated when the ref blows up for full time.  I wouldn’t mind so much if I got a run for my money, and by that I mean where the teams don’t score because of awesome goalkeeping.  But that wasn’t the case – this was just shocking from start to finish.  OK the match was played at altitude so maybe you could excuse Estudiantes for trying to reserve a bit of energy but no excuses for Bolivar as that’s their home pitch (some shitty pitch it was too – I’ve been on military exercises with less bumpy terrain).

Both teams should have scored at least twice, period.  Their total lack of aptitude in front of goal suggests they go and find another job as football clearly doesn’t suit.  Estudiantes should have pissed this game and would piss it 99 times out of 100 but not tonight it seems.  Going forward it’s going to be a long old struggle as I’m pretty much back to tiny bets again but there we go. 

I hate having so little money to do this with.  It’s a handicap. It’s like fighting with one arm tied behind your back.  I really do believe you can make a living from betting, really and truly I believe that, but you can’t do it without a little bit of money to start off with.  I could launch into an essay here so I’m going to force myself to stop and go away to have a think about how I go about resolving things to my satisfaction.  Spreadsheet etc below.

Start Bank      :    443.16
End Bank        :    232.76
Profit / Loss    : – 210.4 (After Commission)

Sick Poorly Dying Dead

March 8, 2010

I started yesterday with some kind of throat infection thing which has carried through to today adding a throbbing head and a sore back to the mix.  That said I’ve decided to try for a 10% bank increase, more if possible, and so far I’m on track after a visit to Lingfield & Stratford where a couple of lays and a foolish back (when I was told differently) have added £26 to my bank so only around £50 to find.

I rarely visit the horsey markets these days but a very trusted friend has emailed me some info relating to the perceived chances of various nags throughout the day.  They are all lays but I actually backed the Pat Eddery trained Kenzwick after listening to William Hill radio where all the pundits were predicting an Eddery plot.  Kenzwick finished a never nearer third and I cursed myself for not sticking to what I was told. 

I won’t be getting any further involved in the racing today as I’m waiting for the footy but there are two horses left on the list and I’ll put them up here just for interest’s sake though I have to point out that while they may lose they appeared on a list of horses that are to be layed according to a predetermined laying strategy so my advice would be to watch them only.  The horses and the price at which they should be layed at (according to the system) are as follows:

Ling 5.30 EXCEED POWER – lay at 3.0 or below
Ffos Las 5.40 SIR BERE – lay at 3.2 or below

I’m off now to look at the footy and see if I can find something to get stuck into.  An update will appear later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Thankfully the two nags I posted up both lost saving me from looking like a tool however my foray into todays football has backfired.  I really should have known better but I went ahead and layed the 3-2 in the correct score market at half time in the Slavia Prague match only to be fucked off by the cheating Czech bastards as they managed to play a full second half without troubling the nets any further.  I’m not having it that this wasn’t an arranged result – you don’t get 5 goals in the first half followed by none in the second without there being extenuating circumstances.  All of yesterdays efforts have been nullified by this bollocks and I’m quietly seething.  Not sure what to do with the rest of the footy…back later on.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I managed to pick the worst game in the history of football to bet on since I last posted.  I’m talking about the complete and utter drivel served up by Bielefeld and Karlsruhe.  I don’t really have enough bad things to say about the lack of commitment, ineptitude in front of goal, complete lack of running off the ball, the list is endless.  A lucky strike in the first half by the visitors is what is currently separating the two sides and since the goal has gone in it’s been all downhill from there.  I’ve got every conceivable score covered with the exception of the current score which I’m sure is how it will finish.  I’ve taken another hammering today so I’m off to lick my wounds.  Spreadsheet below.

Start Bank      :    773.96
End Bank        :    443.16
Profit / Loss    : – 330.8 (After Commission)

Quick Sunday Update

March 7, 2010

I toyed with having a day off today as Mrs Swearbox wants to go out and about but I had the whole morning and a bit of the afternoon to kill so I went about the task of trying to get my 10% bank increase.

The Cagliari game looked like it had goals written all over it so I had a back of over 3.5 goals at half time when the score was 1-2.  Cagliari managed to find the equaliser and that’s the way the game ended and my money was safe.

As the Everton v Hull clash was on TV I decided to make that my next port of call and anyone who failed to make money on that game must be doing something wrong.  Six goals were scored and my three seperate bets on this game, placed as the game progressed, netted me more than I needed on the day to achieve my minimum goal (10% increase of bank).  It’s almost time to leave to go out so that’s me calling it a day.  Spreadsheet below.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I just noticed after looking at my spreadsheet that over the past fewdays I screwed a part of it up so some of the numbers don’t jive.  The total that is on the same row as the last recorded bet is correct, it’s just that the totals on the rolling totals row towards the very bottom are out of whack.  I’ve fixed it for the spreadsheet in this post but I’ll have to go back through previous ones to see which need an updated image (which will be a royal pain in the arsehole but needs must as I want everything to be in order).  I have to go out so I’ll atend to it when I get back.

Start Bank      :    682.57
End Bank        :    773.96
Profit / Loss    : + 91.39 (After Commission)

Right Back At It

March 6, 2010

Those who read yesterdays posing will know my account took a battering so today is the first day of my bid to retrieve the losses.  When you break things down into manageable little chunks you really can see that with a bit of luck there’s light at the end of the tunnel so with that in mind I have a plan for recovery.

It may sound ludicrous to some but as I’m not in the fortunate position of having thousands in my betting bank I tend to be far more aggressive in my attitude to risk.  This could be a bad thing but I’m not about to change things or else we’ll be a year down the line and I’ll still be bank building instead of using the bank to make a steady little income…there is a difference detween the two in that when you’re bank building you don’t touch it you just grow it.  When it’s at a point that you feel is enough then you can start taking money out.

Anyway, the plan is simple – in the short term I’m going to be aiming for 10% of the bank balance minimum on a daily basis.  If I make 10% in my first bet then I’m not necessarily done for the day, I’ll be moving on to 10% of the new balance and so on.  The idea is to make at least that 10% for a while to try to get this bank to where I need it.

I said yesterday that the loss I suffered could be a good thing as when you have a sustained good run you tend to get that superhuman feeling that nothing can get in your way but betting on sporting events has a way of slapping you in the face and waking you up.  Yesterday I got slapped.

My first bet in this quest isn’t one that most would pick but we pay our money and take our choice.  I’ve layed the 0-0 half time in the Portsmouth v Birmingham FA Cup match.  There’s only 15 minutes left and it’s still 0-0 but I’m counting on my money management strategy behind the scenes to see me through the day (given I don’t pick all 0-0’s).  Anyway, there you go, I’m just going to get stuck into it and will be back later with several updates (I hope).

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> The stress of the past few hours has been unbelievable.  My day started off on the wrong note when the Portsmouth match produced a goalless first half so straight away I was on the back foot.  Then I managed a run of 7 matches where my picks produced money and I should have stopped at that but with so many games still left I decided to ride my luck a little further.  That turned out to be a very bad move as the next 4 matches all went against me and instead of being up by around 160 quid I was down almost 250 from my days starting bank.  I was going to call it quits there when I switched the TV on and caught the start of the Real Madrid match and Almeria had gone a goal up.  I heard the commentator saying that historically this fixture has always produced plenty of goals so I threw caution to the wind and backed 3-2 and 2-3 in the correct score market.  An impressive fight back from not one but two goals down saw Real Madrid emerge as the winners by a score of 3 goals to 2 and I couldn’t have been happier when that third goal went in.

It was a big let off for me today as I could easily have thrown the toys out of the pram (well I practically did do) and blown my whole bank but that amazing RM performance saw to it that my intial bank soared by over 60% on the day.  It’s been stressful like I said…watching Barca draw was a hard one to take as you kind of expect them to win all the time so that was a big loss in itself.  And wishing for that 3rd goal in the Madrid match, but hoping that if it comes please let it be right at the end so they don’t get a chance to score more, I was up and down like a yo yo reacting to the game.  I might take a day off tomorrow or at least not go so mad…we’ll have to see how it turns out.  Anyway, spreadsheet below etc, posted in two screenshots as the action wouldn’t all fit on one.

Start Bank      :    416.91
End Bank        :    682.57
Profit / Loss    : + 265.66 (After Commission)