Mental Note To Self

“I must pay myself more often”

It really does make sense to record your betting history and I know you can generate a P&L from Betfair and the like but if you take the time to develop your own personal P&L you’ll develop a more intimate relationship with your past wagers which in the long run will provide you with invaluable data to help you become better at what you do.

After the day was done yesterday I took a look through my spreadsheet, going all the way back to January ’09, to see what kind of mistakes I’d made and whether or not I was still carrying bad habits from the past.  Apart from the obvious stupidity like a whole bankjob (several times) on some outcome or other (some which paid off and some which did not) I found that I have been treating my betting as if it were just ‘something to do’.  I can pick any day and look at the period of a week or so before to a week or so after and the balance would seesaw up and down but on the whole it remained static.  By that I mean I wouldn’t be much better off on say day 10 than I was on day 1, the result being I’m doing a ton of work trading and placing bets yet yielding no significant monetary gain.

I then looked at the periods following a withdrawal and more often than not my account swelled quite rapidly up to a certain point then this seesawing begins again.  So it seems that my most productive periods are those following a withdrawal so I’m concluding that I should be taking money out of my account much more frequently than I have been doing and that starts today.  The only down side to this is that I won’t be seeing a four figure balance anytime soon which is a pisser in itself as I’ll be back in that catch 22 position of having to work my balls off every day instead of being able to take it easy and patiently wait for a game that looks likely to produce a result for me.  The catch 22 is I can’t afford to just sit tight and wait for that game because if it doesn’t produce the goods it’s time wasted when I could have been cashing in on games in between.  I hope you follow me there.

Another thing I noticed is that I have managed to curtail the random bets on the Yank racing.  For a period I was visiting that medium almost every day and while some days it paid off, in the main they resulted in losses for me so I’m glad I managed to rid myself of that habit.  That said I do keep a watch eye on the Betfair Aussie horse racing forum via my girlfriend’s account (I’m banned from the forums). 

The Aussie forum has of late been plagued with a lot of in fighting amongst some of the more prominent posters and on top of that there has been a ton of trolling by one clown who seems hell bent on fucking the place up and he’s doing a fair job of it but all that apart there are some very knowledgeable posters in there and every now and then there will be some golden piece of info posted that will result in a fatter account balance.

So I swept some money out yesterday evening and I begin anew today with a little over £200 in my account.  I have a couple of hours to kill before the in play matches begin so I’ll be spending some of that time doing a bit of research though as far as feeling up to it goes I just feel like staying in bed.  The sore throat I started with on Sunday has morphed into the Ebola Virus, at least it feels like it, and I feel like shite but you can’t get paid if you don’t do the work.  Back later with an update.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  OK, my starting point for the day is a dutch of 2-0, 2-1, and 2-2 in the Rubin Kazan v Wolfsburg game though now I’m wishing I’d found the feed before I placed the bet…what is it with these orange balls ffs ?  They say they use those balls because of snow but there’s no effing snow and following an orange ball is a pain in the arsehole.  Rant over, I’m off to see how things progress.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Well the Rubin feed didn’t last long so I was forced to watch the Betfair screen.  Judging by the number of times the Suspended banner appeared it must have been quite a match, either that or the suspend monkey was playing silly buggers.  The score didn’t work out for me so that was a loss even though I managed to get in a lay of the 0-0 half time score before the first goal was scored.

I progressed onto the Juventus match and actually made up my losses from the Rubin game plus a bit more, and all before half time.  I decided to jump all over unquoted but Juve had other ideas as they didn’t bother to play in the second half.  Fulham were never going to score a second as Zamora saw to it that every ball Fulham punted forward would be wasted by his being in an offside position.  So in that game alone I managed to turn a £60 profit into a £60 loss.

So I’m now in the unfortunate spot where there’s only Copa shit left and I’m currently sitting waiting for either 0-2 or 1-2 in the Nacional v Sao Paulo game.  Regardless of how this game finishes I’ll be going in on both of the games being played at altitude (Emelec & Deportivo Quito).  Not sure what I’m going to do in those games but I’m hoping that the home sides will take advantage of their home venues in the clouds and give us a goalfest.  Back later with a final update.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  The Brazilians obliged with a 2-0 win over Nacional though I have to say it was pretty hard to watch as they seemed not to really give a fuck after the first goal went in.  They swanned around the pitch almost like it’s their right to end up winning and when you have money on them to conjure up a particular result it’s bloody frustrating at times.  Anyway, no more crying, they won and that’s that.

It seems I didn’t do my homework properly for the Emelec match in that they don’t enjoy the same kind of altitude advantage as the likes of Deportivo Quito.  Of course I found this out after I placed my correct score bets of 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1.  Best they don’t let me down.  I’m still toying with laying the 0-0 half time but I’ll watch a bit more of the match I think before I decide.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Oh dear ! Every bet I placed on the Emelec match was a loser and my account is all but decimated.  I have £38 and change left following this disastrous result so I figure that I really don’t have much to lose now.  Final bet of the day is £30 on Deportivo Quito to beat Internacional at 2.8.  If this fails I have some serious thinking to do.  Back after the result is known.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  So far so good in the Quito match – the home team scored first so I was able to lay them for a green book then when Internacional equalised I used the green I had on Internacional and the draw to back Quito again as I think Quito will emerge as the winners as the second half takes it’s toll on the Brazilians.  I also bunged £30 on over 2.5 goals just to put a bit more in the bank (assuming all goes to plan and Quito go on to win the match).  Second half is about to start so I’m off to watch.  I promise the next update will be the last (as if you care ;-)).

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I’m a fucking idiot.  Another lesson learned the hard way.  I greened up after the first goal and that should have been that but I just couldn’t walk away and my balance is now zero.  The second half brought no more goals (plenty of fucking disastrous efforts from set pieces but then again the balls are filled with helium so it’s to be expected that they end up in row Z).  Don’t know what to do from here.  I have to reload at some point but funds aren’t exactly plentiful right now so I’m not sure what’ll happen.  Spreadsheet below.

Start Bank      :    205.87
End Bank        :    0.15
Profit / Loss    : – 205.72 (After Commission)


3 Responses to Mental Note To Self

  1. Edgehunters says:

    Hi swearbox

    great post mate.

    “I must pay myself more often”

    I think you are on to something with your idea of paying yourself. I think it is a part of our trading/betting that we put to little amount of effort into devising a way to it.

    The reason could be that we may not be confident enough in our ability to make enough profits to pay ourselves.

    Anyway as I said great post and keep up the good work.


  2. kokoooooooo says:

    Thats very true, it works with me as well, withdrawing more often does the trick. I love your blog very much indeed and yes specialize in one market is the way, football for me as it seems is for you as well. Good luck and keep up the good work


  3. swearbox says:

    Thanks for the posts and the kind words guys.

    The idea of paying yourself more often is fine and dandy as long as you make some money to pay yourself with. Right now I’m battling against earlier losses though I’ve clawed a bit back after Sao Paulo just scored their second. I hate being on the back foot.

    Anyway I’m always glad to see the odd comment – at least it shows I’m not the only one who reads my posts, 🙂


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