Finding Money In The Street

February 28, 2010

I was stationed at RAF Leuchars at the time and we’d run out of milk so I jumped in the car and set off for the local shop to remedy the situation.  As I drove past the Sergeants Mess my peripheral vision spotted something fluttering in the road and a nanosecond later it was having a conversation with my brain ‘That’s a tenner on the road there’ said peripheral vision, ‘Best we stop and look then’ replied the brain.  So I stopped the car right in front of the entrance to the mess, opened the door to get out, and spotted not one but five crisp tenners nestling along the verge between the far side of the road and the grass.  I scooped them up and trousered them in one swift motion, got back in the car and drove off.  They paid for an excellent curry that evening courtesy of The Balaka in St Andrews (if you ever visit St Andrews and like your curry that’s the place to go.  I’ll go so far as to say if you’re within 50 miles of St Andrews and fancy a curry that’s the place to go).  Anyway, what’s the point of telling you this ?  The point is the punting equivalent of finding money in the street is about 12 minutes away and I’m referring to the price about Man Utd to beat Villa in the Carling Cup final.

Fergie likes Silverware and I don’t think he’ll be disappointed today.  United were all over Villa when they last met even though they were reduced to 10 for much of the game.  Fergie has left Wayne Rooney on the bench I believe, opting to start with Michael Owen instead, throwing a definite curve ball right from the off.  I take United to win this by 2 goals clear but my opening move is an outright back of Utd at around evens.  Got to go as it’s time to get set up etc.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> That was a lot harder than I thought it would be I have to admit as Villa certainly made a game of it.  When the second favourites score first in any match it really helps to set up good trading opportunities and this match was no different as my first thought following the goal was to bung some more on Man U at the inflated odds of 3.5.  This tactic paid off after Michael Owen levelled the score so I was then able to go about greening up the book.  A couple of extra insurance bets followed after United’s second goal in the second half to make sure that I got a reasonable return in the event of a late equaliser while not depleting the profits too much if United held on to their lead.

Prior to this match I had got involved in the Old Firm derby of all things, laying the 0-0 half time score.  The heads down rush forward approach by both teams saw to it that a lot of promising forays forward were given away needlessly as players just concentrated on gaining ground as opposed to seeking out a team mate in space.  I dropped this match at half time taking a loss of 28 quid and moved on to the Spurs game where I recouped most of what I’d dropped on the Rangers game.  My next move was to try and go ahead with a lay of the 0-0 half time score in the Groningen v Feyenoord match.  A shitty playing surface couldn’t be blamed for the scoreless first half as five goals were scored in the second half but my interest was lost at half time and I waited for the United Villa match to begin.

There are a fair few games left but not all are to be trusted – the likes of the Greeks, The Brazilians, and the Portufuese are notorious for not delivering when you really need them to.  That said I’m going with another nation that can also be very lazy when they have a mind to be and the game in question is the one between Puebla and Jaguares.  Over 2.5 is the call here and hopefully the goals will flow…match has started so will disappear for now.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Only one word to describe the Puebla game – goalfest.  I got a bit worried in the first half when I looked to check the price changes following the first goal as the word ‘suspended’ refused to leave my screen.  Dunno what happened as I returned to the match just hoping for the goals in case the match never went back in play but at some point normal service was resumed and I had the option of trading out but a second goal was scored so I let the bet ride.  Final score was 3-3 so a good result for goalbackers.

I was going to call it a day but the Atletico Madrid match is on TV so I’ve had a dutch of 2-1 and 2-2, I’m also going to lay the 0-0 half time score for the quivalent of my stakes in the correct score market as soon as the price becomes low enough.  Back later with a final update.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well I’m glad I pressed on as an incident packed match saw Valencia reduced to 10 men after 28 minutes and then they lost another man late in the second half, though it took 70 odd minutes for Atletico to finally get their noses in front.  I had most of the scores from 2-1 onwards covered but a bit of frantic trading towards the end saw to it that pretty much any score would guarantee a good return (barring the unlikely event that a 9 man Valencia could overcome the opposition and win the game).  I did try to get 20 quid on unquoted at 22.0 when the score was still 2-1 but just as my bet was being taken the suspended sign came up signalling Atletico’s third goal so I had to make do with 4.5 after the dust settled.  Atletico ran out the comfortable winners by 4 goals to 1 to see me account balance increase by 44% on the day so a very pleasing days work.

Before I go I’d like to add my congratulations to team Canada in the men’s hockey final.  Their overtime goal to see off team USA by 3 goals to 2 ensured that millions of Canadians here and across the world will be going home very happy and extremely drunk.  P & L below.

Start Bank      :    616.98
End Bank        :    890.49
Profit / Loss    : + 273.51 (After Commission)

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Bad News For The Expat

February 27, 2010

It looks like today is going to be a write off as Mrs Swearbox’s computer has blown up.  The shitty power bar to which it was plugged in has failed to stop a surge of some sort and with 5 visible blown capacitors on the motherboard it’s now officially dead.  To keep the peace I am now forced to fix it so it’s off to the shops to source a new board followed by backing up all her stuff (hope the hard drive isn’t fucked or there WILL be fireworks believe me) then reinstalling XP and then copying all her stuff back…oh the joy!  I will return later on.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Quick update…Mrs Swearbox has decided that my primary task is to hang a blind so the pc job is on hold for a bit.  My interest for the day was to have started with the Stuttgart v Frankfurt match and 3 goals in the first half say to me this tie isn’t done yet so I’ve stepped in with a lay of 2-1 in the correct score market.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well, close but no cigar there.  Stuttgart ballsed up a really good chance with about 5 minutes to go that would have seen me win 25 instead of lose 50 but there we go.  I don’t mind losing if the teams are trying.  It’s when they blatantly don’t give a toss that I take exception to.  Anyway, moving on, the next port of call is the Coliseum Alfonso Perez where Getafe play host to Real Zaragoza.

The final outcome should be a home win but regardless I’m hoping for a few goals here as Zaragoza are a very leaky outfit away from home and by contrast Getafe seem to be fairly solid at home averaging almost 2 goals per game.  I’m undecided about whether or not to go for over 2.5 or over 3.5 or to dutch a couple of correct scores though I will be laying the 0-0 half time score if the game starts lively enough.  Beginning my day with a 50 pound reversal isn’t ideal as it does tend to cloud my judgement sometimes but all things being even I hope to turn things around on this game.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> I’ve already sustained a huge loss relative to my bank on the Getafe game.  Zaragoza opened the scoring early after the Getafe keeper screwed up thus rendering my back of 3-0 on the correct scores market null and void leaving 3-1 still running.  Getafe’s odds climbed from 1.8 to 3.0 so I backed Getafe.  I was away from my pc when I heard the goooooooooooooooaaaalll coming from the speakers so I returned only to find Zaragoza had gone another goal up.  This rendered my correct score of 3-1 useless and unless there is a mighty fight back from Getafe my win bet in the match odds section is down the pan also.  I tried to limit the damage by laying the 0-2 half time score but a total loss of focus from Getafe (they almost conceded a third, again due to a keeper blunder, saved only by the upright) meant that the score remained unchanged.  Getafe had a corner towards the end of the half and they totally fucked it up opting for a short pass….what the fuck is it with short corners ?? They are a complete waste of time in my opinion.  Anyway, the cross that eventually was attempted went out for a throw in on the far side, not even troubling the 18 yard box.  This day is turning out to be a really bad one, all things considered.  Back later if I haven’t slit my wrists.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> They saying ‘out of the frying pan and into the fire’ best describes my attempt at recouping some of my losses by betting on the second half of the Getafe match.  The spreadsheet shows the myriad ways I tried to get out of jail but the score didn’t change and for me to make anything back required at least one more goal.  Zaragoza came really close towards the end but it wasn’t to be and I lost well over 50% of my bank. 

I know I shouldn’t have done this but I have had a meltdown and plunged on over 2.5 goals in the Tenerife v Real Madrid match.  The remainder of my account is all on bar 8 quid and so far no one has scored and already I’m getting that sinking feeling.  Anyway, must go and see how things turn out.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> I’m sitting here and can’t quite believe my good fortune.  I came away from the Real Madrid match 130 quid better off following their 5-1 thumping of Tenerife.  Buoyed by this I decided to try and claw some more back from the Barca match, feeling sure that over 2.5 must be on the cards.  How could it not be with Barca playing at home ?  I lumped on over 2.5 at, on the face of it, mickey mouse odds, and sat ready to trade out.  First half finishes and no goals…Barca were missing chances left and right.  I looked at the price for over 3.5 and it had reached 2.94 so I lumped more on, my thinking being that surely they will come out and nick a goal nice and early thus forcing the price back down and I would have an easy trade to bag some green.  Wrong again.  It took until the 68th minute for Barca to break the deadlock but the price for over 2.5 remained higher than I had taken it so I had to sit tight.  The equaliser from Malaga came in the 81st minute so I was in with a chance of getting out unscathed instead of losing 300 quid on this game alone.  The price for overs was around 2.0 so I decided to lay off to recover half of that 300 if no more goals came but the price climbed out to quick for me to be matched so I said fuck it and decided to let what will be will be.  Then, in the 84th minute, Leo Messi answered my prayers and tapped home Barca’s second and overs was born.

At one point, had things not gone right, my account would have been left with 8 pounds and some change.  That would have been a loss of 470.00 on the day.  But somehow the gambling gods decided to favour me today and I managed to turn that round to end up with a nigh on 30% increase of my starting bank.  That is definitely it for me for today so I’ll leave you with the spreadsheet showing the final tally for the day.

Start Bank      :    478.26
End Bank        :    616.98
Profit / Loss    : + 138.72 (After Commission)


Day Off ?

February 26, 2010

Today could be a day off for me as I have to go out and do some other work..there’s an outside chance I’ll be finished by 3pm my time but there are only two matches left at that time and both are pish.  I will post later though as I’ve been meaning to tell you another ‘war story’ from days gone by.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> I got back a little earlier than I thought and settled for trying to nick a few quid from the Serie B game at Vicenza.  The market expects a low scoring affair so I’ve placed a couple of correct score bets in favour of the home side, 1-0 and 2-0, and I’ve also placed a cover bet on Cittadella to win in the Match Odds section so a goal either way should see me OK.  To be honest I need a break from the footy so I’m hoping this match works out as if it doesn’t I’ll be taking a loss on the day as I don’t think I’ll bother with any of the other games.  As for the war story I’ll see if I can write that up today ready for publishing tomorrow.  Will be back in a while with an update.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> The market almost got it right as far as the goalcount went and but for a dying seconds chip of Vicenza’s keeper it would have finished with just the one goal from the away side.  At the start of the second half I layed the 0-0 scoreline and went away to make some tea.  I sat back at my desk just in time to see Cittadella being awarded a penalty which they scored from.  Vicenza looked very lively following the goal so I layed the 0-1 to leave me with a pound green if the score remained unchanged or 15 green otherwise.  I also layed Cittadella in the Match Odds section at this point ‘just in case’ to leave me at least 18 quid green whatever the result.  The second gaol right at the end was a nice bonus so I finished up taking 32 quid and some change from the game.  Now I can rest and get myself geared up for tomorrow.  Spreadsheet below.

Start Bank      :    446.08
End Bank        :    478.26
Profit / Loss    : + 32.18 (After Commission)


Thursday’s Action

February 25, 2010

I’ve been running around all morning trying to get some little admin type jobs done before the football kicks in proper but I did (foolishly) have an interest in the earlier game between Seattle and Brann.  It amounted to nothing but the upside is I waited until 20 minutes into the game before placing the lay so I paid out at just over even money.

The 1pm kick offs have now arrived and I’ve taken Shakhtar to do a demolition job at home to Fulham, covering the 3-0, 3-1, and 3-2 respectively as a start.  I need to find a feed to watch now so I’m off to do that and will update later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well  I got that one completely wrong !  First disaster was not being able to find a feed of any sort so I couldn’t follow the play.  I layed the 0-0 half time score at just under 2/1 so was pleased when that came in however I was expecting the goal to come from the home side not from Fulham.  I spent the whole of half time glued to the Betfair screen wondering what to do next.  I figured that Shakhtar couldn’t just lay down, they had to attack, so either way the score must change again at least once whether it be from pressure from the home side or an away side counter so I waited until the second half got underway and layed the 0-1 to give me green on everything and huge red on 0-1.  Thankfully Shakhtar scored and I spent the rest of the match laying off some of my bigger green that I didn’t think would get matched given the late stage of the game.

Next up is the Sporting Lisbon v Everton affair and I have gone for an outright Everton win.  Any team that thrashes Man Utd by two clear goals has to be in good form and Lisbon’s domestic efforts of late have been piss poor so I’m taking Everton to come away on top.  Match is about to begin so I’m off to see if I can find somewhere to watch it.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Holy shitebags on toast my picks are cursed today.  Everton decided to sit on their advantage going into the match and try to keep Sporting out.  Despite dominating the first half Sporting couldn’t find the net and my hal time 0-0 lay went south.  I managed to come out ahead on this game by manipulating the Match odds, before and after the first goal to finish all green (though I was green for zero quid on a Sporting win).  My plan from this point on was to recoup the money I had lost in the first half so I layed the 1-0 full time score as once Sporting had scored the first they went for the jugular and finished off by winning comfortably to see off Everton’s Europa bid.

My next match, and what I expect to be my final match as I’m already big green on it, is the Copa Lib game between Blooming and Lanus.  One word could be used to describe Blooming – shit – and it’s with that in mind that I backed Lanus outright at the start of the match.  Then what happens ?  Blooming score a cracker of a goal from around 35 yards out.  The half volley couldn’t have been sweeter leaving the Lanus keeper wondering where that ball came from.  This was actually a good thing as no way are Lanus losing to this bunch, however the market says their price must go up if they are a goal down and it duly did so I put more on Lanus to win the game.  I then layed the 1-0 half time score and waited for the charge.  Lanus haven’t disappointed and go into half time 2-1 up.  I’ve greened up in the Match odds section and I took 40 quid out of the half time score section so now it’s a case of waiting until the match is over to see whether or not Lanus hold onto their lead or not as that’s where the largest green sits.  I’ll bung up the spready and what not after this game is done.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Lanus added 2 more goals to their tally to cruise the match by 4 goals to 1.  I couldn’t believe the price for unquoted after they scored their third – you could get above evens a full 23 minutes before the match ended so I had a bit on that to round off what has been a very satisfactory day.  I added almost 33% to my bank today and while the last few days have all been positive ones I have to remind myself that you can’t win every day.  It’s periods like this where you have to keep sharp and not dive in and place bets just because you’re on a good run.  That said I’ll probably fuck up royally tomorrow and ignore my own advice.  I’ve made some very minor tweaks to my spreadsheet to tidy it up a bit but unless you look very hard you won’t see what I’ve done.  Back tomorrow.

Start Bank      :    337.17
End Bank        :    446.08
Profit / Loss    : + 108.91 (After Commission)


Damn Dogs

February 24, 2010

The bloody dogs had me up twice during the night, two of ’em wanting to go out at around half one in the morning, then the same two plus a third one got me up again at around quarter to five, the little swines that they are.  At least there’s no chance of sleeping in and missing the day’s early in play games.

Speaking of which I had arrived at the conclusion that the Hiroshima v Shandong Luneng match would be the perfect start to my day as research suggested goals so I duly layed the 0-0 half time score.  Obviously the teams had other ideas and the match ended is a miserable away win by a single goal coming less than 15 minutes from full time.  A 27 quid hit isn’t the way I like to start my day.

Of the other early games in the Asian Champions League one ended up not going in play so there wasn’t much left to go at.  These are the times when, if you can’t wait until the better games come on later in the day, you should go and do something away from the computer.  But not me.  I had 27 quid to make up just to be even on the day so I started out on that task.

I have recently unearthed a laying method that was tied to a subscription based service who provided emailed information pinpointing the horse races of the day where the favourite should be opposed.  The method was very simple – the user would place his lay stake according to the emailed instructions then if the lay was beaten bank the money and move on.  If the lay won the race then the following two lays would be staked thus: regular stake amount + (money lost on first lay divided by 2).  So if the guy’s regular lay stake was 20 quid (regardless of the price, so you are laying to win a fixed amount not laying to lose a fixed amount) and the first lay won the race the next two lays would be for a total of 30 quid each time.  If all lays won their races then you stop for the day, readjust your target amount, then start again fresh the next day.  If this condition wasn’t met (maybe the second or third lay lost it’s race) then you would continue laying and adjusting until the day was done.

Although the site claims that they were winning most days I had occasion to email the creator of this system and contest the figures quoted on the website.  He mailed back to tell me that they binned the dividing the losses on the first lay by 2 and opted for dividing the losses by 4.  Apparently this was to appease those punters who were a bit choked up on days where things went totally wrong (so they ended up not losing as much on the day before they stopped).

So the reason for telling you this is that this is the method I’ll be adopting for a while just to see how it goes and it’ll only apply to my lays of the half time scores.  By adopting this method you can see that it only takes two successful lays to recover your losses plus a little bit extra.  I’ve already placed my first recovery bet using the method, which was a lay of 0-0 in the Mes Kernan v Al Ahli match.  The stake was for my usual bet of a tenner plus a quarter of my losses (rounded up) from the Hiroshima match so my total was a lay to win me 17 quid which I can report was successful.  I was tempted to follow up in the Ethnikos match as the market expects APOEL to batter them but you can’t trust those Greeks so I’m going to go with the CSKA v Sevilla match as it’s live on Setanta…if the omens look good then that’ll be my next lay of 0-0 half time for 17 quid.  The teams are out so I’m off…back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well I’m glad I avoided those Greeks as they are definitely not to be trusted.  That’s twice in a week that the market has predicted a walkover for one Greek team over another only for it to end goalless so it’s no wonder on occasion you have bookies refusing to take bets on certain matches.  Anyway, enough of that and on to proper football.  After 20 minutes of watching the CSKA match I was cursing Sevilla as they clearly looked to be playing for containment of CSKA only.  Their first corner (I think) was a pathetic short pass which resulted in nothing more than a throw in following a brief skirmish along the line.  I was delighted a few moments later though when Sevilla broke away down the right and a low cross beat everyone in the box falling to Negredo as last man for an easy tap in.  That would be my second lay netting another 17 quid so I’m currently up 4.50 as I type. 

There’s a lot of footy left and we’re a bit spoilt for choice but I have to say I fancy goals in the Spurs Bolton game.  I’m starting off by covering 3-0, 3-1, and 3-2 and hoping for an end to end affair.  The match is live on Setanta so going to disappear off and report back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Spurs ran out very comfortable winners in the end and after the second goal went in I forced myself to back the unquoted to make sure I didn’t lose on the only conceivable scoreline that I didn’t already have covered.  It turned out to be a wise move seeing that an early second half goal, their third, pretty much killed the price on unquoted so then it was just a case of wait and see what happens.  Spurs always looked threatening even though they backed off a bit at three quarter time but I layed off a bit of my 3-0 profits to bump up the take out on unquoted.  I don’t mind sacrificing a few quid of green even if the move doesn’t come off because it’s a good habit to get into in the long run.

There’s only shite left now and the right thing to do is leave it alone but one match stands out as long as they decide to play football and that’s the game between Corinthians and Racing Club of Urugay.  I got involved in a Corinthians league match the other night and those cheating bastards ensured the game finished 0-0 when they could have torn their opposition apart.  Tonights game is a Copa Lib match so I expect a more competitive effort from them on home soil.  My forecast is over 2.5 but I’ll be watching and waiting from the off for the 0-0 half time score to drop to an acceptable price (so as long as I feel there may be a goal forthcoming I will lay the 0-0).  That’s all for now, the next update will be the last of the night.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> I just happened to sit down in front of the pc to check email etc when I caught sight of the Cruzeiro match turning in play so I found a feed and watched for a bit.  Both sides appeared to be trying so I made my mind up to find an entry point into the match but before the 0-0 half time price dropped sufficiently Cruzeiro went a goal up.  The match carried on at the same hectic pace so when I felt comfortable I layed the 1-0 half time score and I’m happy to say Colo Colo stepped up and levelled the score.  Two red cards for Colo Colo in the second half put paid to their night as Cruzeiro romped the match 4-1.

Eventually the Corinthians match started and wasn’t much over a minute old when the away side scored.  Prices on the half time scores were ludicrous as the market expected a Corinthians reply (which they eventually got) so I switched my tactics up and backed Corinthians to win at the inflated price of 1.85 (they started the match around 1.25) hoping to trade out when they scored.  For a while Racing were looking pretty sharp and Corinthians weren’t exactly trying too hard so I stuck a small amount on Racing to leave me with red on the draw only.  After 71 minutes the 11 man Corinthians side managed to put the second goal past a 10 man Racing side and that was the end result, 2-1.  I greened up following the goal to take another small amount from this game but I don’t think I’ll be bothering with Corinthians again.  I don’t like their style of play…rather than getting balls wide they seem to prefer coming down the centre channel and trying to finesse their way through to the goal.  It’s how their second goal was scored but I’m still not convinced…they are almost too patient which bugs the shit out of me so no more Corinthians.  Roberto Carlos and that fat pudding Ronaldo can kiss my arse.

In summary not a bad day – at least I won as opposed to lost which is always preferable.  The bank increased by 45 quid and change so happy with that.  This bank building lark is bloody tedious as the increases are so small right now but I really am trying not to do dumb things and over commit and it appears to be going OK for now.  Spreadsheet etc below, talk tomorrow.

Start Bank      :    291.35
End Bank        :    337.17
Profit / Loss    : + 45.82 (After Commission)


Olympics Joke Of The Day

February 23, 2010

Courtesy of Mrs Swearbox…though I’m guessing that if you have an email account then you’ve already heard it (or should that be read it ?).

Husband says to wife as he’s ferretting through the mail:

“Excellent ! The Olympics condoms I ordered have arrived…I think I’ll wear Gold tonight.”

To which the wife replies:

“Why not wear Silver and come second for a change ?”     Boom Boom

Not funny I know, I wanted to give you the one about the ten year old boy walking in on his parents while they were having it off but I’ll save that one for another time.

Anyway, enough of the digressions and on to the day in hand and what a day in store.  Literally nothing doing that I can be bothered to get excited about with the exception of the Man Utd game and possibly the Stuttgart v Barca game though my betting day has already been underway for some hours.  One of my dogs got me up at stupid o’clock this morning to be let out so while she was doing her business I checked in on Betfair and having done a bit of research last night before bedtime I elected to lay the 0-0 half time score in the Kashima Antlers game which, at the time of checking out on Betfair, was only 17 minutes old (so that would be 5.17 am here in Canada).  I left the computer and let the dog back in and went back to bed to be awoken less than 2 hours later by two more dogs wanting to be let out.  Immediately before they woke me I had been dreaming about the Kashima game and how, in the last minute of the first half, the home team fired the ball through a crowded penalty box to break the deadlock.  I let the mutts out and checked out the final score (I like to use xscores) and saw that the final score was 1-0, the goal coming in the 42nd minute.  I’m claiming that as proof positive that I can see into the future, even though they scored a couple of minutes before my dream said they would, and I will be adding a Paypal link to the blog soon where mugs can send me money in exchange for information via my clairvoyant like wormhole to the future.

Moving on….I fancy goals in both games but I’m more drawn to the United game as, since I woke up, I’ve had a gut feeling that this game will end 3-0 or 3-1 so I intend to start by dutching those scores from the off and hopefully being green in all the right places come fulltime (plus any added Fergie time that may be needed…then again, if Fergie time is required it won’t be 3-0 or 3-1 at the end).  I will also be laying the 0-0 half time score and I’m actually surprised that it’s trading so low right now but I’ll give it ten or fifteen minutes to give the price a chance to tumble a bit more. 

As for the Barca match I’m thinking over 2.5 but I’m not keen on the skinny odds and am prepared to wait a while before I go in.  That’s pretty much it for now, stand by for an update later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> A pleasing afternoon’s work began with a lay of the 0-0 half time score in the Barca match which was on Setanta.  I watched the first 15 minutes then turned up the volume so I could hear the commentary and looked for a feed for the Man U match.  I placed my bets on the correct scores of 3-0 and 3-1 and with the Chinese commentary turned off I watched the game whilst listening to the Barca match on the TV in the room next door.

After Barca went a goal down I lost interest in that match as the 0-0 lay had come in so I turned my attention to Old Trafford.  The price for 0-0 at half time here had skyrocketed since I last looked and though I don’t like laying at much over 3.0 there are times when you just have to bite the bullet and hope you’re right.

It took United 34 minutes to figure out where the West Ham goals were situated after a fierce shot from Darron Gibson was pushed just past the post by a fully outstretched Robert Green and thereafter was only a matter of time before United found the net.  The first goal came after a brilliant move where the Lazy Bulgarian flicked out wide to Valencia who side foot volleyed the ball back into the box where Wayne Rooney dipped his head down to waist height to power the ball into the net.

Another headed goal by Rooney was followed up by a Michael Owen smash and grab job in the second half and it was game over.  At 2-0 I layed the score and I had to fret a while with a 73 quid exposure if that third one didn’t come.  At 3-0 I layed the score to ensure at least a 50 quid profit whatever the result though I really did want West Ham to score as that would have netted me 170.

All in all a very good day with a bank increase of around 38%.  There are more in play games left but I think I’ll be sensible and give them a swerve.  Spready below.

Start Bank      :    211.38
End Bank        :    291.35
Profit / Loss    : + 79.97 (After Commission)


I Don’t Like Mondays

February 22, 2010

So sang Bob Geldof and I have to say I agree.  Today is a non day as far as finding inspiration goes and I should have passed on it completely but I’ve managed to dig one of those holes I referred to in my very first post.

I’ve been out most of the morning, having had to find some wood for a DIY project then doing a bit of computer ‘hand holding’ for my girlfriend’s dad, and instead of just chilling I decided to see what was going on in the world of in play football.  The match in progress was the Fenerbahce v Bursaspor game and I watched for a bit and as usual a goal was scored as I was getting myself geared up for a possible entry into the game.  A third goal was scored by half time and both teams were looking lively so I placed a tentative lay bet of the 2-1 half time score with almost 20 minutes of the game remaining but no further goals were scored so I lost a tiny bit.

I’ve since layed the 2-1 in the correct score market but now I’m wishing I hadn’t as that goal hasn’t come and I only have 15 minutes remaining before I take an unreasonably large hit mainly because I just couldn’t take a step back and call it a day.  The match isn’t boring by anyone’s standards but the ball isn’t finding the net.  I’ll wait until this has finished before updating the spreadsheet then I’ll have to see if there is anything left worth getting involved in.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I have to admit that in all the matches I have ever watched, and that’s a lot, I’ve never actually witnessed a ref give a free kick to the attacking side in the defenders’ penalty box that wasn’t a penalty (ie, ball not placed on spot and a defending wall allowed).  Today I broke my duck in the Fener match as the ref gave a free kick to Bursaspor a yard or two inside the right hand corner of Fenerbahce’s 18 yard box.  The free kick was awarded as the ref deemed the Fener player to be guilty of a high boot (was 6 of one and half a dozen of the other as the Bursa player’s boot was just as high).  Once taken the kick was deflected off an onrushing defender’s boot and flicked over the wallto nestle in the far corner and my lay of 2-1 was safe.  5 minutes later Bursa broke away on a counter and slotted away their third goal for an amazing comeback to win the match 3-2. 

I fancied goals in the Valencia game so I backed over 1.5 goals to be scored in the first half but sadly the only goal of the half came too late for me to be able to trade out so a small loss was incurred there.  However, a lay of the 2-0 score in the second half  following the second goal came in thanks to a red card reducing Valencia to 10 and a determined effort from Getafe, the scoreline finishing 2-1.

With only Brazilian shite left I’m calling it a day as I would be kicking myself if I give back my meagre profit as a result of betting in a game I know I should be avoiding.  Day’s action is captured below.

Start Bank      :    199.62
End Bank        :    211.38
Profit / Loss    : + 11.76 (After Commission)